Southwest monsoon ends with 12% deficit; East and Northeast see driest season since 1901

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon season closed with a nationwide rainfall total of 759.4 mm, 12.6% below the long-term normal of 868.6 mm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. At 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA), this marks the driest monsoon since 2015, when seasonal rainfall was a marginally lower 758.2 mm. The most severe shortfall was in the east and northeast, which, at 1,017.1 mm, registered its driest monsoon since 1901—the earliest year for which the IMD maintains systematic records.

Forecasts, El Niño and seasonal overview

The subdued season broadly tracked early warnings from global weather agencies and the IMD, which had flagged the likelihood of one of the strongest El Niño events in recent history suppressing rainfall. On April 13, the IMD projected June–September rainfall at 92% of the LPA with a ±5% error margin. Its May 29 update trimmed that forecast to 90% with a ±4% window. The final outturn at 87% sits within that stated range.

Monthly performance: a weak June, mixed core months

While the seasonal total aligned with headline projections, the month-by-month and regional evolution diverged from expectations in notable ways:

• June proved far weaker than anticipated, delivering just 65% of the normal rainfall against an IMD forecast of 92%.
• July defied a “below 94%” outlook and finished 1% above normal, buoyed by a strong surge over central India, which received 33% more rain than usual.
• August, at 84% of the LPA, conformed to the IMD’s “below 94%” guidance.
• September ended at 92.4% of the LPA, slightly above the forecast of “below 91%.”

IMD Director General M. Mohapatra said the agency’s predictions matched conditions in “many regions, except some parts of northwest and adjoining central India.”

Regional disparities widen

The sharpest deficits were concentrated in the east and northeast, where seasonal rainfall was 25.6% below normal. Mr. Mohapatra noted a “marked trend” of diminishing monsoon rainfall in this region “in recent years.” The southern peninsula also had a notably poor season, ending 24.3% below normal at 542 mm—its fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901.

Northwest India finished the season 5.9% below normal, while central India was comparatively less affected at 2.6% below normal, the IMD said.

Three meteorological subdivisions—Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam & Meghalaya—were rain-deficient in every month from June through September. Overall, 17 of the country’s 36 subdivisions, covering 42% of India’s land area, recorded deficient rainfall; 18 were normal and one saw excess rain. At the district level, 282 of 741 districts were deficient, and 34 were classified as “large deficient.”

Withdrawal under way; drier, warmer October likely

The southwest monsoon’s withdrawal is in progress and is expected to complete within the first weeks of October, after which the northeast monsoon will set in, Mr. Mohapatra said.

With El Niño still strengthening, the IMD expects October rainfall to be below 85% of the LPA of about 75.4 mm. Most parts of the country are likely to see below-normal rainfall next month, though parts of northwest India, the southern peninsula, and isolated pockets in the east may receive normal to above-normal precipitation.

“Parts of Punjab, Haryana and northern states may see good rainfall because, in El Niño years, western disturbances are likely to increase. We’ve seen some good rain in these regions in the last week and this means soil-moisture is high, which will help the forthcoming winter crop,” Mr. Mohapatra said.

Temperatures are expected to trend above normal across much of India in October. Exceptions include parts of the northeast, where minimum temperatures may be normal to below normal, and pockets of central and northwest India, where maximum temperatures are likely to remain near normal.

Significance

The 2026 monsoon deficit, consistent with an evolving El Niño, underscores the growing month-to-month and regional variability of India’s rainfall. With the southwest monsoon retreating and the northeast monsoon on the horizon, attention now shifts to how October’s projected dryness and warmer-than-normal temperatures may influence water availability, soil moisture, and the early stages of the rabi cropping season—particularly in regions where late-season rain and western disturbances could offer some respite.