By The Sampadak Express
As Indian trade officials arrived in Washington for the final round of in-person talks ahead of the July 9 deadline for pausing reciprocal tariffs, US President Donald Trump hinted that a significant trade deal with India may soon be on the horizon.“
Everybody wants to make a deal and be part of it… We just signed with China yesterday. We’re having some great deals. One may be coming up with India a very big one where we’re going to open up India,” Trump said during a White House event. “In the China deal, we’re starting to open up China. We may do the same with India.”
The high-stakes negotiations come amid limited progress in previous discussions, with agricultural market access and other sensitive sectors continuing to pose challenges. Sources familiar with the talks said the Indian side could face mounting pressure to make concessions in order to avoid the reinstatement of reciprocal tariffs.
While the US has raised concerns over India’s high import duties and various non-tariff barriers, it has yet to commit to key Indian demands. The absence of a valid Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) in the US further complicates matters, as it prevents the current administration from legally reducing tariffs limiting the scope of the agreement to executive actions rather than long-term commitments.
The US is particularly seeking greater access to the Indian market for agricultural exports, including soybeans, corn, and apples commodities central to its trade strategy, especially in the context of its ongoing rivalry with China. A potential deal with India could help Washington secure alternate markets for these goods.
A recent NITI Aayog working paper suggested that India might consider allowing more soybean oil imports from the US as a strategic concession that could address trade imbalances without adversely affecting domestic producers. India, the world’s largest edible oil importer, remains a key target market for US agri-exports.
From a broader perspective, Indian officials have underscored that diversifying sources of oil and defense imports aligns with national interests. Increasing imports from the US could also help offset the goods trade gap. India’s dependency on imported oil surged to 90% in April 2025, in line with its expanding refining capacity.
Trade data supports this trend. India’s crude oil imports from the US jumped by 11.49% to reach $63 billion in March 2025 compared to the previous year, reflecting growing energy cooperation between the two countries.
As the final round of negotiations unfolds, all eyes remain on whether the two sides can strike a deal that balances mutual strategic and economic interests or whether key differences, particularly on agriculture, will stall progress once again.
