By The Sampadak Express
In response to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following the Israel-Iran conflict, India has significantly ramped up crude oil imports from Russia and the United States in June 2025, surpassing combined volumes from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers.
According to energy analytics firm Kpler, Indian refiners are expected to import between 2 million to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia this month the highest in nearly two years. In May 2025, India imported 1.96 million bpd of Russian crude.
Crude imports from the United States have also surged, reaching 439,000 bpd in June, up from 280,000 bpd in May. Together, Russia and the US have now overtaken Gulf suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait in India’s crude sourcing portfolio.
This shift comes after US President Donald Trump announced targeted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities earlier this month, escalating fears of broader regional instability. However, no disruptions to oil supply chains have been reported so far.
Middle East Volumes Dip
Indian imports from the Middle East declined to around 2 million bpd, lower than last month, as vessel activity from the region shows signs of slowing. Kpler’s lead research analyst Sumit Ritolia noted a drop in empty tankers (ballasters) heading to the Gulf, from 69 to 40, indicating hesitation among shipowners due to heightened risks.
Strait of Hormuz at Risk
Market watchers are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles nearly 25% of the world’s oil trade. Any move by Iran to block the passage could severely impact global energy flows.
India, which sources nearly 40% of its crude oil and 50% of its LNG imports through Hormuz, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions.
While a full blockade is considered unlikely due to strong geopolitical disincentives, experts warn that oil prices could skyrocket to $400 per barrel in the event of major supply interruptions.
Russian Advantage and India’s Oil StrategyOne key factor behind India’s increased reliance on Russian oil is the independence of Russian crude routes from the Strait of Hormuz, with deliveries routed via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or the Pacific Ocean.“
In the event of any Hormuz disruption, Russian barrels will gain share due to better availability and stable pricing,” said Ritolia, adding that India may also look to boost imports from Nigeria, Angola, Brazil, and the US despite higher freight costs.
As of June 19, Russian crude accounted for 35% of India’s total oil imports, underscoring its growing dominance in India’s energy mix.
Indian refiners are now carefully monitoring the evolving situation and are expected to adjust procurement strategies to safeguard energy security, ensure supply stability, and maintain cost efficiency amid global uncertainty.
