By The Sampadak Express
After two consecutive defeats in the Delhi Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to make a major comeback in the national capital, according to the majority of exit polls released on Wednesday. If the predictions hold true, it will mark a dramatic shift in Delhi’s political landscape after 27 years, giving the BJP a chance to regain control. This anticipated resurgence presents a significant blow to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its leader Arvind Kejriwal, who had hoped to secure a third consecutive term following strong showings in the 2015 and 2020 elections.
In the previous two elections, the AAP had emerged with overwhelming victories, securing nearly all 70 seats. However, following Kejriwal’s resignation from the Chief Minister’s position last year amid allegations of corruption, the AAP’s popularity appears to have waned. Meanwhile, the Congress, once the dominant political force in Delhi under the leadership of Sheila Dikshit, is expected to remain on the margins, with most exit polls predicting a meager 1–2 seat win.
Exit Polls Paint a Picture of BJP Dominance
The average of five exit polls paints a clear picture of BJP’s ascendancy, with the party projected to win approximately 39 seats, surpassing the halfway mark of 36 needed to form the government. The AAP, facing a 10-year anti-incumbency period, is expected to be reduced to just 30 seats. This stark contrast in the predictions signals a potential shift in voter sentiment, especially after the BJP’s recent successes in Haryana and Maharashtra.
Despite the optimism surrounding the BJP’s rise, past experience suggests that exit polls are not always accurate. Historically, exit polls have often been off the mark, so while the predictions are compelling, they must be taken with caution.
Not all pollsters, however, predict a BJP victory. Only a couple of pollsters, Mind Brink and WeePreside, foresee a return of the AAP in Delhi. Mind Brink forecasts a comfortable win for the AAP with 44–49 seats, while WeePreside predicts a similar range of 46–52 seats for the party. In contrast, Matrize has projected a much closer race, suggesting that the BJP could secure between 35–40 seats, while the AAP would take 32–37 seats.
BJP’s Predicted Stronghold Over AAP
Several exit polls foresee a dominant win for the BJP in the upcoming election. PMarq predicts a range of 39–49 seats for the BJP, with the AAP receiving between 21–31 seats. Times Now JVC also forecasts a BJP victory, predicting 39–45 seats for the saffron party and 22–31 seats for the AAP. People’s Pulse, among the most bullish pollsters, gives the BJP a staggering 51–60 seats, while it predicts just 10–19 seats for the AAP.
As the exit polls paint a promising picture for the BJP, its Delhi unit chief, Virendra Sachdeva, has already begun to celebrate, using a term coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, “AAP-da (disaster) is leaving,” indicating the fall of the AAP from power.
AAP’s Defiant Stand: A Historic Victory in the Making
Despite the bleak predictions, AAP has refused to back down. Party leader Reena Gupta expressed optimism, claiming that the AAP would “register a historic victory” and that Arvind Kejriwal would return as the Chief Minister for the fourth time. Gupta pointed out that the AAP had been consistently underestimated in previous elections, citing that the party had exceeded poll expectations in 2013, 2015, and 2020. She asserted that this time too, the AAP would defy the exit poll projections and secure a strong victory.
Factors That Could Have Worked in BJP’s Favor
The exit poll predictions, which favor a BJP resurgence, suggest several factors that may have contributed to this shift in political dynamics. A significant factor seems to be the Congress’s impact on the AAP’s support base, particularly among the Muslim and Dalit communities, where Congress has managed to regain some influence. This has likely helped the BJP, which has traditionally received support from these groups.
Additionally, the BJP appears to have made significant inroads into jhuggi (slum) clusters and unauthorized colonies, key voter bases that had propelled the AAP to power in the past two elections. The BJP’s sustained criticism of the AAP, particularly regarding the alleged liquor policy scam, which saw several AAP leaders face charges, has also likely resonated with voters. The controversy surrounding the renovation of Kejriwal’s official residence, the so-called “Sheesh Mahal” controversy, in which he allegedly spent crores on luxury fittings during the Covid-19 pandemic, may have eroded public trust in the AAP leadership.
Furthermore, the BJP’s recent budget announcement, which included tax cuts for the salaried middle class, a demographic that has long supported the party, is believed to have helped the BJP consolidate its voter base.
Implications of a BJP Victory in Delhi
A BJP victory in Delhi would have far-reaching consequences, particularly in neighboring Bihar, where state elections are scheduled later this year. The Purvanchali community, a significant voting bloc in Delhi, also comprises one-third of the electorate in Bihar. Therefore, the results in Delhi could provide valuable insight into the mood of voters in Bihar, particularly in the context of national political trends.
Looking Ahead to February 8: The Final Verdict
As the nation eagerly anticipates the final election results, all eyes will be on February 8, when the votes will be counted and the next government for Delhi will be determined. Whether the exit polls prove accurate or whether the AAP manages to defy predictions once again, one thing is certain – the Delhi Assembly elections will be a key moment in shaping the political landscape of the region in the months to come.
