The results of Saturday’s Assembly elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra offer more than just a verdict on who will form the next government. They signal crucial shifts in the political landscape, addressing pressing issues like welfare, caste census, and the role of ideology, all of which will influence future political discourse.
Women and Welfare: Key Factors in the Polls
One of the most significant takeaways from the elections is the impact of welfare schemes targeted at women. Both Maharashtra and Jharkhand implemented income support programs that became central to the campaigns. In Maharashtra, the “Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana” and in Jharkhand, the “Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana” were touted as game-changers, resonating strongly with voters.
The impact of these schemes is evident in voter turnout. In Maharashtra, the female voter turnout increased by 6% from 2019, rising to 65.1% in 2024 from 59.2%. Similarly, in Jharkhand, women voters outnumbered men, contributing to the overall higher turnout. In a state with 2.61 crore registered voters, women cast 91.16 lakh votes, surpassing male participation by over 5.5 lakh votes.
These trends suggest that women-centric welfare programs can transcend traditional political categories, creating a broad base of support that reaches beyond caste and regional divides.
Caste Census: A Shifting Debate
The issue of caste census had dominated political discourse after the BJP’s victories in the 2023 Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, leading some to believe it was no longer a viable issue. However, with the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approaching and the rhetoric of “samvidhan khatre mein hai” (the Constitution is in danger) gaining traction among marginalized groups, the caste census debate resurfaced.
In Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, concerns about the BJP ending reservations, if it gains a substantial majority, seemed to energize marginalized voters to support the INDIA bloc. However, this sentiment did not seem to play as significant a role in the state Assembly elections, particularly in Maharashtra.
The BJP’s success in regaining the OBC support base and its appeal among the Scheduled Castes and Tribes has proven crucial. The party’s social engineering efforts, dating back to the 1990s, were evident in the results. For Congress, the lesson is clear: without strong OBC leadership, calls for a caste census will likely be dismissed as an attempt to divide Hindu votes, as reflected in BJP’s “Batenge toh Katenge” (divided we perish) slogan.
Ideology: A Test Case for Hindutva in Maharashtra
Maharashtra’s political landscape has been notably fragmented, with several parties shifting alliances, which led some to question whether ideology still held weight. Despite this, the results indicate that political ideology, particularly Hindutva, remains a defining factor in the state.
The Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) outperformed Shiv Sena (UBT), cementing the dominance of the Hindutva legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. The election also saw a head-to-head battle between the BJP and Congress in Vidarbha, where ideological firmness played a significant role. The Congress, which had built momentum with its “Constitution in danger” narrative, saw a decline in support among Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and OBCs, which hurt the Hindutva project by reducing its broader base among these communities.
To counter this fragmentation, the BJP used targeted campaigns, including Union ministers Kiren Rijiju and Bhupendra Yadav’s efforts to woo Dalit and ST voters. The party’s slogan, “Batenge toh Katenge,” was designed to appeal to a unified Hindutva vote, and it worked: in the 75 contested seats between BJP and Congress, the BJP won 64, while Congress claimed just 9. This outcome underscored the enduring relevance of ideology in a fragmented political environment, reaffirming that political success in Maharashtra hinges on maintaining a clear ideological identity.
The results from Maharashtra and Jharkhand reflect broader trends that will shape political strategies moving forward. Women and welfare programs are becoming increasingly central to electoral success, while the caste census debate remains a delicate issue for parties to navigate. Meanwhile, ideology—specifically the persistence of Hindutva in Maharashtra—proves that even in a fractured political landscape, clear ideological commitment can still yield significant electoral rewards.
