Pradeep Gupta’s Axis My India exit poll has projected a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections. According to the exit poll, the ruling alliance is expected to secure between 178-200 seats in the 288-member assembly, a clear majority.
In contrast, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), is projected to win 82-102 seats. The Mahayuti alliance is expected to dominate with a 48% vote share, while the MVA is projected to secure 37% of the vote.
Region-wise Projections:
1. Mumbai Region: The Axis My India exit poll predicts a strong performance for the Mahayuti alliance, which is projected to win 22 out of 36 seats with a 45% vote share. The MVA is expected to win the remaining 14 seats.
2. Vidarbha Region: In Vidarbha, the Mahayuti alliance is forecast to win 39 out of 62 seats, while the MVA is projected to secure 20 seats.
3. Konkan and Thane Region: The Mahayuti alliance is expected to win 24 out of 39 seats in Konkan and Thane, with the MVA securing the remaining 13 seats.
4. Rest of Maharashtra: The Mahayuti is projected to win 30 out of 46 seats in other regions, while the MVA is predicted to win 15 seats. The BJP-led alliance is expected to maintain a 45% vote share compared to the MVA’s 38%.
5. North Maharashtra: The Mahayuti alliance is set to dominate the North Maharashtra region, securing 38 out of 47 seats. The MVA is expected to win only 7 seats.
6. Western Maharashtra: While the MVA may perform slightly better in Western Maharashtra, the Mahayuti alliance is still expected to capture a significant portion of the seats, winning 36 out of 58 seats. The MVA is projected to win 21 seats.
Predictions from Other Pollsters:
Other exit polls have also indicated a likely victory for the Mahayuti alliance, though with varying margins:
1. P-MARQ Exit Poll: Projects the Mahayuti alliance to win 137-157 seats, with the MVA securing 126-147 seats. It also forecasts 2-8 seats for other parties.
2. Matrize Exit Poll: Predicts 150-170 seats for the Mahayuti alliance and 110-130 seats for the MVA, with 8-10 seats going to other parties.
3. Chanakya Exit Poll: Projects the Mahayuti alliance to win 152-160 seats, with the MVA securing 130-138 seats.
4. Peoples Pulse Exit Poll: Forecasts a decisive victory for Mahayuti with 175-195 seats, while the MVA is expected to win 85-112 seats.
The majority mark in the Maharashtra Assembly is 145 seats. While the Axis My India exit poll suggests a comfortable win for the Mahayuti alliance, other exit polls indicate a more competitive race with the possibility of the MVA securing a closer tally. Nonetheless, the BJP-led alliance appears poised for a strong performance in the 2024 elections.
